The big idea
A theory that explains one fact while ignoring four is not a competitor yet.
There are four main alternatives, and each is worth stating in its strongest form before responding. Stolen body: someone removed Jesus from the tomb. Wrong tomb: the women went to the wrong place. Swoon: Jesus survived the crucifixion. Hallucination or legend: the appearances were psychological or the story grew over time.
Test each against the full data set. Theft explains an empty tomb but not why the thieves would then sincerely believe and die for the claim. Wrong tomb collapses once anyone checks the right one, which was easy in Jerusalem. Swoon requires a scourged, crucified man to survive, escape burial, and convince people He had conquered death rather than barely survived it.
Hallucination has the most going for it psychologically, but hallucinations are private and individual, and it does not explain the conversion of a committed persecutor. Legend struggles with how early the claim appears. None of these are stupid; they are just each covering a fraction of the ground.
Key argument
Comparative testing
- 1List the facts that need explaining.
- 2State each rival theory in its strongest form.
- 3Check which facts each theory leaves unaccounted for.
- 4Prefer the theory with the widest coverage and fewest additions.
The objection
"Any natural explanation is more likely than a miracle."
Best response
That is a reasonable prior, and I hold it too for ordinary claims. But "less likely" is not "explains the data." If every natural option leaves major facts uncovered, at some point the prior is doing all the work and the evidence is doing none.
Mistake to avoid
Mocking these theories. Present them fairly. A caricature you defeat easily convinces nobody who was actually considering it.
Conversation move
"Which alternative do you find most plausible? Let us walk through it together and see how far it gets."
Memory line
"Explain everything, or admit what you left on the table."
Practice
Choose the swoon theory and list the three separate improbabilities it requires.
Self-check
2 questions to check the idea stuck. This one is just for you — it is not scored and does not affect your quiz accuracy. The path quiz is the graded one.
The main weakness of the hallucination theory is that:
A good response caricatures rival theories to make them easy to dismiss.
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